Growth of energy consumption in the emerging economies is led by India and other Asian countries, says BP Energy Outlook report.
The report considers three scenarios – the ‘Rapid’ approach sees new policy measures leading to a significant increase in carbon prices while the ‘Net Zero’ course reinforces Rapid with big shifts in societal behaviour. The ‘Business-as-usual’ projection assumes that governmental policies, technology, and societal preferences continue to evolve as they have in the recent past.
Growth in global energy demand in all three scenarios is driven entirely by emerging economies, underpinned by increasing prosperity and improving access to energy. Energy consumption in the developed world falls as improvements in energy efficiency outweigh demands from higher levels of activity.
India and Asia together account for more than the entire increase in primary energy in Rapid and Net Zero and almost 60% in Business-as-usual. India is the largest source of demand growth out to 2050 in all three scenarios.
Growth in China’s energy demand slows sharply relative to past trends, reaching a peak in the early 2030s in all three scenarios. Indeed, China’s energy demand in Rapid and Net Zero by 2050 is back close to 2018 levels, helped by accelerating gains in energy efficiency and a continuing shift in the structure of the economy away from energy-intensive industries. Despite that, China remains the largest market for energy in all three scenarios, accounting for over 20% of the world’s energy demand in 2050, almost twice that of India.
Africa’s contribution to demand growth increases in the second half supported by a growing population and rising prosperity. Even so, Africa’s energy consumption remains small relative to its size: although around a quarter of the world’s population is projected to live in Africa in 2050, it accounts for less than 10% of total energy demand in all three scenarios.
The contrasting energy trends in developed and emerging economies lead to a continuing shift in the centre of gravity of energy consumption, with the emerging world accounting for around 70% of energy demand by 2050 in all three scenarios, up from around 50% as recently as 2008.
Data Source: BP Energy Outlook
